Worst Impacts from Ike Rotating Inland
Tim Ballisty, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
12:12 a.m. ET 9/13/2008
Hurricane Ike
As of 11 p.m. CDT, Ike was located about 45 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas, with maximum sustained winds at 110 mph; a high-end Category 2 hurricane. The forward movement is toward the west-northwest at around 12 mph.
The latest pressure reading from an Air Force Hunter Aircraft of 952 millibars. Landfall is about 2 to 4 hours away but additional strengthening could still occur and it still may attain Category 3 status. It must be stated, however, that the impacts from a high end Category 2 and a low end Category 3 are nearly identical.
View the
Ike Tracker here.
A
hurricane warning remains in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Baffin Bay, Texas and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coasts, including the city of New Orleans.
Ike will make landfall along the upper Texas coast during the next few hours very close to Galveston, Texas on the west end of Galveston Island. A strike on Galveston Island will provide dangerous, perhaps life-threatening impacts. The inundation may be locally catastrophic.
View the
projected path here.
The most severe conditions will impact areas just to the north and east of where the center makes landfall; the right front quadrant of Ike's circulation. Water level rise will be life-threatening in the coastal Texas counties of Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, Harris and Jefferson County.
It has been well documented but it can't be said enough. Because of Ike's very large size, the water level rise produced by Ike will be larger than an average-size Category 2 hurricane.
A water level rise has already been occurring along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast. A 10 foot (and rising) surge is being measured on the Galveston Pleasure Pier. Several areas of Galveston Island are already flooded; especially on the west end.
A storm surge is also impacting the west side of Galveston Bay. Cities such as La Porte, Seabrook, Bacliff, and Texas City will have to deal with sections of their cities being inundated due to the storm surge. A storm surge may also impact the low-lying areas along the San Jacinto River such as perhaps Baytown. In fact, a storm surge of 6.4 feet is being reported at La Porte as of 8 pm ET.
A storm surge of 8-10+ feet is being recorded at Cameron, Louisiana, in the southwest part of the state. It is likely the city is inundated by this point.
The NHC warns of a significant and very dangerous storm surge of up to 20 feet could occur near and to the east of where Ike's center of circulation makes landfall. A surge of 25 feet could occur at the heads of the bays.
Here's a graphic outlining the highest
coastal flood threat.
Along with the surge comes powerful, damaging winds. Hurricane-force winds extend 120 miles from the center while tropical storm-force winds extend and astounding 275 miles from the center.
Conditions are worsening by the minute along the upper Texas coast. Because of this massive size, it is very important to emphasize that tropical storm and hurricane conditions are currently being felt even though Ike's center of circulation is still 3 to 5 hours away.
The worst weather conditions have begun along the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana as the northern eyewall rotates inland and brushes up against the coast. This includes an inundating water level rise, very heavy rain, sustained hurricane-force winds, and battering waves. These damaging and ferocious impacts will continue well into Saturday morning.
After Ike makes landfall early Saturday, life threatening flooding rains and potentially damaging winds will spread inland across Texas. Interior tropical storm warnings are in effect for cities as far north as Tyler and Waco, Texas. An inland tropical storm watch is in effect for Dallas/Fort Worth.
As Ike weakens Sunday, the flooding rains will shift into eastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, southeast Kansas, central and southern Missouri and southern Illinois.
Jeanie 
Linear Mode
